the picks

An introduction-

For those innocent surfers who have happened upon this blog, please read it with caution.

I have been handicapping the Kentucky Derby for as long as I can remember. For the last 20+ years I have written and distributed my picks to a handful of friends, family, and fellow horse racing fans. I have done this at their request, presumably because the sheet provides them with some modicome of enjoyment and entertainment.

It’s certainly not because I know horse racing. You see, up until last year I was stuck in a Derby handicapping drought of 20+ years. A full generation. In fact, most of my readers had never known me to pick the winner.

So do not think you have stumbled across the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Do not congratulate yourself for finding good fortune. I have made no one wealthy.

That is, up until last year.  Please read on-

There is a God.

After numerous years out of the Derby money I finally won with Super Saver. That’s numerous years as in since 1987 and Alysheba.

I am not ashamed to admit I cried.

After the race, my Derby evening looked to be set. Friends were dropping by and congratulating me; I had a hot grill, plenty to cook, and a refrigerator full of beer. Best of all, I had Sunday morning. For too many years I had to read about a colt other than my pick winning the Derby in the Sunday morning Louisville Courier-Journal. It was not fun; on particularly painful years (Grindstone comes to mind- I had Cavonnier) I just wouldn’t open the paper. But not this year. This year I would lie in bed and nurse my hangover with coffee and the Courier and all the stories about Super Saver.

                       

At around 7:00 PM on Saturday, May 1, 2010 I was one happy boy.

But at around 7:01 that God I had just discovered showed he had a sense of humor. And I was the butt of today’s joke.

It started off with the escape of two of our four dogs. That led to one upset wife and about a three and a half hour search along some very busy and dangerous roads. It ended with a limited power failure in downtown Louisville which shut down just a few things- one being the printing press for the Louisville Courier Journal. So no party, no grill, no beer, and no Sunday Sports Section.

Now, in the end the dogs were found in fine shape and the Courier did finally arrive Monday morning. As for the beer and grillable meat? Well, that stuff just doesn’t go to waste around here.

But bottom line, I got screwed.

So despite ending my years of handicapping futility last Derby, I still feel I am owed. And this year is the payoff.

(You, on the other hand, may wish to focus on my handicapping prowess during the years 1988-2009.  Just accept last year’s result as a divine intervention for heavenly yucks and guffaws.)

So, understanding I offer no guarantees, warranties, or assurances, liquidate what assets you possess, borrow as much as creditors, friends, and relatives will release, and bet it all on…

1. Pants On Fire- Every year there are a few colts whose name you don’t want to see on a Derby glass. Pants On fire is this year’s leading candidate. It just doesn’t have the nobility of a War Admiral or Citation. But he’s my colt. The Louisiana Derby performance had all the elements I look for in a Derby colt- stays up front, shows a nice move in the stretch, and is tough enough to gut it out in the end. He has one of the best, if not the best, pedigrees in the race and has been training well. I think this one is just hitting his stride. The jockey, Rosie Napravnik, has me a bit worried as this is her first Derby. But she’s won everywhere she’s ridden- why not Churchill?
2. Midnight Interlude- Ran a rough race in the Santa Anita, winning after an odd trip down the stretch where he bore in, pulled up, recovered, and then caught Comma To The Top at the wire. Very raw and inexperienced, he may not be ready for this kind of race. Still, I’m a believer in Bob Baffert being able to get him ready. He’ll be in my exotics.
3. Dialed In- Probably the favorite and probably the best colt in the race. Made an incredible run in the Florida Derby and has won (in another incredible run) at Churchill. I like Zito and I like Leparoux. What I don’t like is his off the pace running style. 20 colt fields are hard to get through and around unless you’re being steered by someone named Borel. I see him as this year’s Ice Box; in the money but just short.
4. Mucho Macho Man- Had a legitimate excuse in finishing third in the Louisiana Derby when he lost a shoe at the start. Looked great previous to that race in winning the Risen Star. But there are questions whether he can handle the distance, and one shoe shy or not, he looked finished in the Louisiana. I think the Churchill stretch gobbles him up. Of course, he may show up in my exotics.
5. Nehro- Talk is he’s the “wise guy” choice. Normally that’s a bad sign in the Derby. A lot of my past picks were the ‘wise guy” picks, and we know how well that worked. He came up short in both the Louisiana Derby and the Arkansas Derby, although he would have won Arkansas if it went a furlong longer. But he was beat by a better colt at Louisiana. 
6. Twice the Appeal- The Sunland Derby winner, he looked cooked at the end of that race. In fact, I’d prefer to see the place and show finishers of that race in the Derby as they were moving at the end. This one gets mentioned only because of his rider, Calvin Borel. He clearly has the Derby figured out, and he can get the most out of his mount. I just don’t think this one has enough to give.
7. Uncle Mo- It took his handlers three days to find an excuse for the Wood loss- a gastrointestinal problem. Sure. Sick or not, I think he just got beat, and last year’s super two year old is a super miler. He can’t and won’t go the distance. Regardless, if he is, or was, under the weather, why bet him when he’s clearly not 100%?  Stay away.
8. Shackleford- almost stole the Florida Derby until he got caught by Dialed In at the end. No one is going to let him run away here, and his best final 1/8 of a mile does not translate to a Derby winner.
9. Brilliant Speed- He came from way back in the Bluegrass and was sizzling at the end. But the beginning of the race was pretty slow. I think he’s going to be too far behind and have to get around too many colts. A fast early pace and large field beats him.
10. Archarcharch- Won’t won’t won’t so don’t don’t don’t. Looked good in winning the Arkansas Derby. But not as good as Nehro, who was flying as he was dying. Doesn’t look like he’ll handle the distance.
11. Stay Thirsty- I’m not the most interesting man in the world, when I do drink beer I don’t drink Dos Equis, and I won’t invest a dime on this one. I think his Florida Derby is more indicative of his talents than the Gotham win. Stay clear, my friend.

As for the rest? Honestly, why? If there was a year we could of and should have had a 12-15 colt field, it was this one.

Here’s how I see it shape up- Comma to the Top will go out fast and I look for Soldat and Shackleford, among others, to try and stay with him. Pants on Fire will be laying anywhere from 4^th to 6^th at the third turn and will make his move then. He’ll take the lead in the stretch as the front runners begin to fade. At that point it will be a matter of holding off Dialed In, Midnight Interlude, and Nehro. But I think he’ll have plenty in the tank and pull off to win by three lengths.

My bet? Other then an across the board on Pants on Fire, I’ll box a tri with my first four. I’m still thinking of adding Twice the Appeal in somewhere as Calvin Borel could work his magic. Plus, there’s something thematically right about Pants On Fire, Midnight Interlude, Mucho Macho Man and Twice the Appeal all in a box.

Good luck. Bet recklessly.